Dr. Rupp Wraps Up the DNC

The irony of the outcome of the 2008 Democratic convention in Denver was that for the first time in political history, women delegates outnumbered men. In terms of gender makeup, the West Virginia delegation is exactly 50/50. Such division follows party rules. In terms of race makeup, four African Americans represent West Virginia and the rest Caucasian, although the party rules require only three minorities.

Although the selection of Hillary would have made history, so did the nomination of Barack Obama.

One must realize that until 1940’s the Democratic Party was seen as a white man’s party. In 1924 there was only one alternate delegate who was black. Change was slow even though majority of blacks started voting Democratic during the Roosevelt administration. As late as 1960 there were only 33 black delegates at the Democratic convention in Los Angeles.

The two hits at the convention represented the age spectrum. On Tuesday night Obama’s two daughters stole the show when they talked to their father on the screen. The next night it became Joe Biden’s mother who became the celebrity. In fact when Obama made his surprise visit to the stage, he mentioned her.

Speaking of a small world, when I went to get a floor pass, the DNC worker Shawna Blair told me about her grandparents Melvin and Sally Peluchette who live in Wheeling.

She still made me return it after 30 minute time limit.

Walking on the floor at the Pepsi Center was quite difficult, not just because of the number of people, but because of the space occupied by the media. Almost one-third of the floor area was taken up by television. The irony of the CNN set was that the commentaters faced away from the podium. So that they had to turn their heads to see what was actually occurring on stage- a feat they mastered during their continuous broadcast.

Outside the Pepsi Center on Wednesday protests were planned, but for the most part not well performed. Ironically one of the groups called itself “Recreate 1968”- referring to extensive protest mounted in the streets of Chicago at the 1968 convention.

What is interesting about the protests at Denver forty years later was that it was preceded by a concert by “Rage Against the Machine”- a group known for instigating their audiences.

Meanwhile inside the Pepsi Center, Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley was endorsing Obama. Forty years before his father was mayor and drew national attention when he when he shouted at an alleged obscenity at a speaker criticizing the Chicago police force. The “macaca moment” was captured on camera and symbolized the chaos inside and outside the convention hall.

Such factionalism is absent from 2008 convention as current mayor of Chicago is supporting a black senator who won his 2004 primary without the help of the city machine. After that primary victory, however, the Chicago mayor became a key supporter. And some attribute the efficiency of the Obama campaign to its Chicago origins.

The Obama campaign provided some good news to the West Virginia delegation in the form of more visitor passes to the Thursday speech at the stadium. Perhaps the generosity reflects the announced increase in commitment of resources to the state by his campaign.

The move to the football stadium for tonight’s acceptance was novel. In 1960 John Kennedy spoke at the Rose Bowl stadium home in Los Angeles. But the Denver move poses a logistically problems since all the media and security equipment could not be moved out the Pepsi Center until 10:00pm last night.

Obama’s speech tonight will end the 2008 Democratic convention on both an historic a unified note. It also will mark the start of intense campaigning in electoral cycle that started more than 16 months ago.

-Dr. Rupp is a Professor of political science and history at West Virginia Wesleyan College

What is Your Perception?

While Dr. Rupp’s fascination with this year’s DNC has been the unique experience of seeing, being and feeling as a participant in Denver (envy, envy, envy) I have had the opportunity to live the DNC as most of us do…through the tube. In fact, I actually watch it on two different TVs. But that’s crazy! But not really if you know my purpose. You see, one set is tuned to MSNBC while the other is tuned to FOX News. And last night, Hillary’s speech was of particular interest. I wrote down a bet to myself; I bet that as soon as the speech was over, there would be almost polar opposite opinions by the commentators of these two “news” stations. Oberman’s (MSNBC) first response was “She hit a home run!” while Hume (Fox) had this sour, nonchalant (boring) look on his face as he announced something to the effect of “Well there you have it.”

Commentary among the panelists on both channels continued the polarized responses. “She supported Obama right from the beginning” (MSNBC). “She rarely mentioned Obama and instead promoted herself” (FOX).

So who was right? Can they both be right? Let’s ask this in another way. Traditional journalism demands that news tells you the information in a nonpartisan way so YOU can make the judgment that’s best for you. What perception does Fox have? What Perception does MSNBC have? Are their perceptions dictated by those who write their checks? And, more troublesome, do these anchors present these Administrative dictates as “real news” to you the watcher of the tube? What do you believe?

I’m going to make another bet with myself (mostly since I haven’t asked anyone to bet with me) that when I watch on my two TV sets the higher profile speeches at the Rep Nat. Convention next week, these “newspeople” will conduct a classic case of role reversal.

-Pete Galarneau, Assistant Professor of Communication

Dr. Rupp Updates

Wednesday evening at the Democratic convention in Denver features two speeches-of which the most important may be the ex-president rather then the vice-presidential nominee.

Yesterday Hillary Clinton did a dramatic call for unity in a speech Senator Jay Rockefeller said was a “homerun.” Her speech helped to put to rest the concerns that she or more importantly her supporters would sit out this election.

Tonight her husband , the only Democratic president re-elected in two generations, did the same call for unity. Although in private he was apparently more reluctant, in public he rallied the delegates who showed their support for him.

The question will be for the remaining 10 weeks whatever Clinton is asked to do more, and if asked, if he will do more. In 2000 he was willing to campaign for Al Gore, but was not asked. In 2008 one wonders what his role will be.

Perhaps the best measure for both Clinton will be the time they spend campaigning for the 2008 ticket-especially in those areas she did so well in such as West Virginia, southern Ohio, and western Pennsylvania.

In many ways Clinton’s speech overshadowed the Joe Biden’s speech-for despite all the talk unity is actually more important than the Vice-presidency. To win the election Obama will need more than 80% of Democratic voters.

Vice-presidents may strengthen a ticket as Gore did Clinton, or Dick Cheney did for George W. Bush, but they do not decide it. The best they can do is to follow the tenet of the Hippocratic oath taken by doctors- “First do no harm.”

The last time such a Vice-Presidential selection had a direct impact on an election was in 1960 when Lyndon Johnson delivered Texas electoral vote to John Kennedy. In terms of electoral votes, Biden’s home state of Delaware has only 3 votes and those were already in the Obama column.

Democrats in 2008 hope that Biden will shore up Obama’s foreign policy stance much like Dick Cheney from the small state of Wyoming was used to strengthen George W. Bush’s credentials.

Democrats also hope that Biden will provide “constituency relief” by appealing to those group of voters that Obama lost to Hillary in the primaries. A good campaigner with a strong personal story, Biden relates easily with blue collar and Catholic voters.

If Biden works well in the diners, Obama works best in the arenas-so well that he will follow John Kennedy’s action and make his acceptance speech at Invesco field, home of the Denver Broncos. But tickets even for that large an arena are hard to get since supposedly 90,000 Colorado citizens have requested a ticket.

It seems that those in the state who hosted the convention also want to be an eyewitness to history. The irony is that initially organizers were worried about attendance and made plans to bus in supporters.

The dilemma for the convention organizers- displeasure delegates or Colorado voters in a swing state. (Obama is statistically tied with McCain in this traditionally Republican state.

While many want to see history, many want to blog about it. The importance of blogs to 2008 campaign was demonstrated at the breakfast meeting of the West Virginia delegation. It was announced that West Virginia Blue was featured by CNN. When the station announced that blogs were very busy after Michelle Obama’s speech, but CNN only showed only that blog.

Blogs which have provided accessibility to information unimaginable five years ago. Certainly the DNC recognizes it having issued press credentials to more than 100 blog site here at the convention.

As there is an explosion of blogs in America has fueled the debate continues on whatever more is better. The debate is not new. When Henry David Thoreau learned that the invention of the telegraph allowed Americans to communicate from Maine to Texas, he asked “will we have anything to say?” The answer is that we hope we do.

- Dr. Rupp is a professor of Political Science/ History at West Virginia Wesleyan College

Continued Media Coverage

FYI- Dr. Rupp will be interviewed on C-92 radio at 5:00 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for each convention. (Democrats this week, and Republicans next week)

You can tune into FM radio, or via streaming audio from the Wesleyan website.

Further, Dr. Rupp also contributes to the Wheeling Intelligencer, as well as WTRF-TV, the West Virginia CBS News affiliate.

Dr. Rupp- Inside the Convention

Hillary Clinton’s speech on Tuesday is both ironic and historic. The first woman to become a major contender for a presidential nomination by a major political party finds herself speaking on behalf of Barack Obama. The situation could have been reversed if she had been able to do better in some of the state caucuses.

But even then she commands almost half of the delegates who listen to her tonight.

As Michelle Obama said Monday night, Senator Clinton put 18 million cracks into the glass ceiling (number of votes she collected in the long primary campaign.

Her strong endorsement of Obama is needed because her supporters are needed to help Obama win.

Before she speaks the assembled delegates will hear from the Democratic governors each of whom will make an address to the convention.

Special attention will be paid to Joe Manchin, the current chair of the Democratic Governors Association and to Strickland one of new members who joined after his landslide election in 2006.

Democratic victories in that year signaled a Democratic resurgence that could have important impact on the upcoming presidential elections. Popular governors can help a presidential candidate by offering a statewide organization and the benefit of statewide popularity.

In Ohio Strickland provided crucial help for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary as did Ed Randell in Pennsylvania. Both governors are expected to play similar role in the upcoming general election. Each state is important to John McCain. For no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio and a win for McCain in Pennsylvania would provide him victory.

But speculation about general election rests on how well each political party does in its public presentation at each convention.

For conventions are important in the decision making. Since 1944, 20% of American votes picked a candidate during the convention, according to the American National Election Study. The fact that 1 out of 5 voters select during the convention makes the desire to avoid bad images all the more important.

Which leads us back to tonight’s speech by Hillary Clinton and the need to win over enthusiastic support of her delegates and more important her voters who sustained her during the seventeen month primary campaign.

As you watch speeches during the remaining days of the convention remember the tension that each candidate must face-the need to fire up the base, and the need to appeal to the moderates. How can one throw red meat to the party activists, but also appeal to moderates who view passion in politics as _____ in ______.

Four years ago at the convention in Boston the Kerry campaign decided to cleanse speeches by all speakers of anti-Bush rhetoric. The decision was based on Kerry’s candidates lead and his focus on moderates. In hindsight the decision was questionable, because it did not allow the public who turned in for the first time to the campaign to hear negatives about Kerry’s opponent.

This year we would not expect such restraint since the polls now rate the contest as a tossup. That fact suggests that the Democrats will be under increasing pressure in the remaining nights to ensure a convention that will be viewed favorably by the delegates inside and the undecided voters outside.

- Dr. Robert Rupp, Professor of Political Science West Virginia Wesleyan College

Professor Galarneau Evaluates Media

As a researcher who favors studying how the media presents information (particularly news media) I found it expected and somewhat disheartening that the media bias is quite evident as one watched the convention speeches at the DNC on Monday evening. On MSNBC there was the flowering of optimism that even though party unity is of concern, MSNBC made it evident that the Dems would come together sooner rather than later. Pay close attention to what the commentators say. But also watch the ancillary messages, particularly those that scroll at the bottom of the TV screen. “News” that is really opinion adds to the commentary.

On Fox News, the same messages promoted by the DNC speakers are presented as dismal, and the idea of unity is lifted up as such a major hurdle that the Dems will have a difficult if not impossible time at rectifying it. Clinton and Obama are at odds, according to Fox. And they will remind the viewer of this constantly. The scroller at the bottom of the Fox News channel rolls opinion that is evidently one-sided.

Stay tuned for the rest of the week, particularly when Hillary speaks. Switch between the two news channels and see if there is not evident bias and not a habit of traditional journalistic news reporting. Then watch the RNC next week to see if the roles reverse.

-Pete Galarneau, Assistant Professor of Communication

Dr. Rupp Opens Convention Media Coverage

As the Democrat convention kicks off today, media, protesters, delegates, and supporters all flooded into Denver city limits.

This morning, Dr. Rupp covered the convention for West Virginia Public Broadcasting, mentioning the key issues thus far: the role of Senator Joe Biden, and the question of party unity. Senator Obama chose the "traditional route" in selecting his vice president, with a "fill in the gap method: balancing age, balancing experience, and emphasizing foreign policy."

Further, Dr. Rupp adds that party unity is a high priority. "The push for unity will [indeed] be made, but how much?" It is to be determined how much Senator Clinton and her supporters
file in behind Obama and offer genuine support. Rupp adds that the West Virginia delegation is expected to follow the momentum at the convention, though West Virginia voted for Clinton overwhelmingly in the primary.

Source: West Virginia Public Broadcasting

Dr. Rupp also contributed to the Wheeling Intelligencer
as well as West Virginia CBS affiliate WTRF-TV



-MAB

Day 1: Pre-Convention Analysis

I arrived in Denver Sunday as part of the 15,000 media covering the 5,000 delegates at the 2008 Democratic convention. Also an expected 30,000 more vistors are expected to come to Denver to protest watch and somehow participate in this historic convention.

Many newspapers stopped sending reporters to conventions. The argument was that conventions became coronations-a four day info commercial for the political party.

There was little drama since the candidate was known months before the formal nomination process began.

But I find such rituals both interesting and informative. They provide insight into both the candidate and campaign. While the four day event allows the candidate to orchestrate an image, it also allows the voter an in depth look at the words and images a political party uses to woo voters.

There are 3 stories we can follow over the next four days here at Denver.

1. Party Unity

The divisions within the Democratic Party are still apparent after a primary battle that was incredibly long (17 months), close (few 100 delegates separated the contenders) and historic (either the first woman or the first African-American would be selected).

The speeches and actions of both Hillary and Bill Clinton will be carefully securitized to see the degree of their enthusiasm. As the majority party, the Democrats need only to get 85% of their base to win-but such percentage may be difficult if the Clinton supporters either bolt or stay home.

At the 1980 convention President Jimmy Carter’s failure to enlist Ted Kennedy’s strong support contributed to his defeat.

At the airport I saw several delegates still wearing their Clinton button. And the upcoming roll call vote will only focus attention on how well Clinton did as the first serious woman candidate for the major party’s nomination. The situation was not helped by the USA headline “Poll: Clinton backers restless: (only) 47% say they are behind Obama. The expectation is that such voters by November will support their party’s presumptive nominee, but there is an air of some tension reminiscent of 1988 when the convention awaited Jesse Jackson’s support of Michael Dukakis.

For West Virginia the actions of the Clinton couple are crucial. For many believe that if they both would actively campaign in West Virginia they could increase dramatically the chances of Obama to win the Mountain state.

2. Candidate Introduction

Just as they did in 1976, 1988, 1992 and 2004, the Democratic Party has once again nominated a national novice. And with less than 70 days from the election, many voters still do not know Obama. Moreover 12% think Obama is a Muslim and three times that number say they do not know enough about him. This despite long primary campaign and extensive media coverage.

Obama’s expected nomination at Denver this year contrasts with what happened in 1980-the last time the party convened a convention here. At that convention Democrats selected an icon of the party-“The Great Commoner” William Jennings Bryan who had run for the presidency in 1896 and 1900

To introduce Obama to the public, the party will use the convention’s four nights of television coverage. It starts opening night with testimonies begin Monday night from his relatives, high school teacher and his wife.

3. Convention Bounce

Most conventions give the party’s candidate a bounce in the polls of up to 10%. As the convention starts tonight in Denver, Democrats hope for such a reaction comes Friday.

Their concern mirrors the fact that Obama is statistically tied with John McCain in national polls. That situation did not confront John Kerry when he gave his acceptance speech at Boston in 2004. At that time Kerry led in the polls against President George W. Bush.

Obama’s exchangeable lead with McCain is perplexing. For eight out of ten of the electorate say they are dissatisfied with direction of the country

As with the start of any convention, the party activists at Denver appear optimistic. In a version of “build it and they will come,” the majority of 5,000 delegates believe “inform them (voters) and they will support.”

How well that happens will be measured in the post-convention “bounce”, and it happens depends what the 15,000 media report and what the millions of voters will see over the next four nights.

-Dr. Robert Rupp, Professor of Political Science West Virginia Wesleyan College

Dr. Rupp on MetroNews

Dr. Rupp sits down with Hoppy Kercheval in Denver to discuss how the race affects West Virginia:

"The swing states are Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia," says Rupp. "We're surrounded by swing states and they're going to pour in the resources and, I think, the argument this week is going to be 'Drop the other shoe and come to West Virginia and put it in contention.'"

Source: MetroNews 08/25/08


-MAB

Obama - Biden

At 3:00 A.M. Saturday morning, a whirlwind of text messages were released from Obama HQ with this announcement:

“Barack has chosen Senator Biden to be our VP nominee."

The Obama-Biden ticket obviously comes as a surprise to some, and common sense to others. The choice trumped other candidates such as Bayh and Kaine, each bringing their respective assets to the race. However, in the end, it is Senator Biden’s foreign policy experience that gave him the VP nod.

The challenge will be balancing Biden’s long tenure in Congress with Obama’s message of fresh, new change. Perhaps the senator from Delaware will give the needed experience to accomplish the message of change brought forth in this election; or, perhaps Biden will give Obama the needed boost in his foreign policy background, in the waning days leading to November 4. Or both. Or neither.

Today’s speeches by Senators Obama and Biden went well in Springfield today, and the duo seems to be well received. How will this news affect the veep choice of John McCain in the upcoming week?

-MAB

The Departure...

Soon I will leave for Denver, Colorado, the site of the Democrat National Convention where Barack Obama will be the 2008 party nominee for the Democratic Party.

I will keep you updated, as I cover the news, and look forward to all of your correspondence.

After, the Democratic convention, I will then depart for the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, reporting John McCain's party nomination. I will be fulfilling the same media duties for several media outlets in West Virginia, including live broadcasting from the conventions to C-92 FM, Wesleyan's student radio station.

I'll talk to you later from Denver!