Dr. Rupp- Inside the Convention

Hillary Clinton’s speech on Tuesday is both ironic and historic. The first woman to become a major contender for a presidential nomination by a major political party finds herself speaking on behalf of Barack Obama. The situation could have been reversed if she had been able to do better in some of the state caucuses.

But even then she commands almost half of the delegates who listen to her tonight.

As Michelle Obama said Monday night, Senator Clinton put 18 million cracks into the glass ceiling (number of votes she collected in the long primary campaign.

Her strong endorsement of Obama is needed because her supporters are needed to help Obama win.

Before she speaks the assembled delegates will hear from the Democratic governors each of whom will make an address to the convention.

Special attention will be paid to Joe Manchin, the current chair of the Democratic Governors Association and to Strickland one of new members who joined after his landslide election in 2006.

Democratic victories in that year signaled a Democratic resurgence that could have important impact on the upcoming presidential elections. Popular governors can help a presidential candidate by offering a statewide organization and the benefit of statewide popularity.

In Ohio Strickland provided crucial help for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary as did Ed Randell in Pennsylvania. Both governors are expected to play similar role in the upcoming general election. Each state is important to John McCain. For no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio and a win for McCain in Pennsylvania would provide him victory.

But speculation about general election rests on how well each political party does in its public presentation at each convention.

For conventions are important in the decision making. Since 1944, 20% of American votes picked a candidate during the convention, according to the American National Election Study. The fact that 1 out of 5 voters select during the convention makes the desire to avoid bad images all the more important.

Which leads us back to tonight’s speech by Hillary Clinton and the need to win over enthusiastic support of her delegates and more important her voters who sustained her during the seventeen month primary campaign.

As you watch speeches during the remaining days of the convention remember the tension that each candidate must face-the need to fire up the base, and the need to appeal to the moderates. How can one throw red meat to the party activists, but also appeal to moderates who view passion in politics as _____ in ______.

Four years ago at the convention in Boston the Kerry campaign decided to cleanse speeches by all speakers of anti-Bush rhetoric. The decision was based on Kerry’s candidates lead and his focus on moderates. In hindsight the decision was questionable, because it did not allow the public who turned in for the first time to the campaign to hear negatives about Kerry’s opponent.

This year we would not expect such restraint since the polls now rate the contest as a tossup. That fact suggests that the Democrats will be under increasing pressure in the remaining nights to ensure a convention that will be viewed favorably by the delegates inside and the undecided voters outside.

- Dr. Robert Rupp, Professor of Political Science West Virginia Wesleyan College