Day 1: Pre-Convention Analysis

I arrived in Denver Sunday as part of the 15,000 media covering the 5,000 delegates at the 2008 Democratic convention. Also an expected 30,000 more vistors are expected to come to Denver to protest watch and somehow participate in this historic convention.

Many newspapers stopped sending reporters to conventions. The argument was that conventions became coronations-a four day info commercial for the political party.

There was little drama since the candidate was known months before the formal nomination process began.

But I find such rituals both interesting and informative. They provide insight into both the candidate and campaign. While the four day event allows the candidate to orchestrate an image, it also allows the voter an in depth look at the words and images a political party uses to woo voters.

There are 3 stories we can follow over the next four days here at Denver.

1. Party Unity

The divisions within the Democratic Party are still apparent after a primary battle that was incredibly long (17 months), close (few 100 delegates separated the contenders) and historic (either the first woman or the first African-American would be selected).

The speeches and actions of both Hillary and Bill Clinton will be carefully securitized to see the degree of their enthusiasm. As the majority party, the Democrats need only to get 85% of their base to win-but such percentage may be difficult if the Clinton supporters either bolt or stay home.

At the 1980 convention President Jimmy Carter’s failure to enlist Ted Kennedy’s strong support contributed to his defeat.

At the airport I saw several delegates still wearing their Clinton button. And the upcoming roll call vote will only focus attention on how well Clinton did as the first serious woman candidate for the major party’s nomination. The situation was not helped by the USA headline “Poll: Clinton backers restless: (only) 47% say they are behind Obama. The expectation is that such voters by November will support their party’s presumptive nominee, but there is an air of some tension reminiscent of 1988 when the convention awaited Jesse Jackson’s support of Michael Dukakis.

For West Virginia the actions of the Clinton couple are crucial. For many believe that if they both would actively campaign in West Virginia they could increase dramatically the chances of Obama to win the Mountain state.

2. Candidate Introduction

Just as they did in 1976, 1988, 1992 and 2004, the Democratic Party has once again nominated a national novice. And with less than 70 days from the election, many voters still do not know Obama. Moreover 12% think Obama is a Muslim and three times that number say they do not know enough about him. This despite long primary campaign and extensive media coverage.

Obama’s expected nomination at Denver this year contrasts with what happened in 1980-the last time the party convened a convention here. At that convention Democrats selected an icon of the party-“The Great Commoner” William Jennings Bryan who had run for the presidency in 1896 and 1900

To introduce Obama to the public, the party will use the convention’s four nights of television coverage. It starts opening night with testimonies begin Monday night from his relatives, high school teacher and his wife.

3. Convention Bounce

Most conventions give the party’s candidate a bounce in the polls of up to 10%. As the convention starts tonight in Denver, Democrats hope for such a reaction comes Friday.

Their concern mirrors the fact that Obama is statistically tied with John McCain in national polls. That situation did not confront John Kerry when he gave his acceptance speech at Boston in 2004. At that time Kerry led in the polls against President George W. Bush.

Obama’s exchangeable lead with McCain is perplexing. For eight out of ten of the electorate say they are dissatisfied with direction of the country

As with the start of any convention, the party activists at Denver appear optimistic. In a version of “build it and they will come,” the majority of 5,000 delegates believe “inform them (voters) and they will support.”

How well that happens will be measured in the post-convention “bounce”, and it happens depends what the 15,000 media report and what the millions of voters will see over the next four nights.

-Dr. Robert Rupp, Professor of Political Science West Virginia Wesleyan College